On the surface, the question is rather simple to answer. In the past, real estate has followed cycles that go something like this - in the short term, prices drop, the number of second homes purchased decline, many communities/properties go into bankruptcy, real estate supply and demand fall back in-line and, in the longer term, the market returns back to the normal excesses.
However, the cycle is most likely going to change. A different cycle may start. Why?
Banks will be more hesitant to loan up to 90%LTV, provide no documentation loans, or allow a developer to build a condominium building with only 60% sold. Builders will rarely build spec homes, thus existing homes become more valuable - to the extent they have deflated in price already. And lastly, a new trend RESORTTOPIA feels will take hold is that purchasers will once again look for value properties. Yes, I said VALUE.
In other words, they may still spend $1 million for an oceanfront property, but it will be for a 3-4 bedrooms, not a studio suite. And that studio suite will be $250,000 - $400,000 and have realistic rental income opportunities. These value properties will be found in all sorts of markets. They may be renovation properties, foreclosures or fire sales. The properties may be new, but if so they will be in emerging markets such as the Grenadines, St. Kitts, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica and Panama.
And, what would seem to go opposite of logic, these properties will not be part of large resort properties, but rather small resort properties with non-branded or boutique branded hotels, clubs and spas. Why? Well, larger properties have all amenities imaginable. Thus they are expensive to construct, nearly impossible to finance, and their financials depend too much on a large volume of cash flow (ie sales). Smaller properties will still have great amenities, usually better locations and they will be much easier to finance and ultimately build - hence easier to sell.
That is the short and long term as RESORTTOPIA sees it. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to let us know.